Mortgage Rate Watch
A new home can be the biggest purchase of your life. Before you start looking for the right home, you may want to research your mortgage options.
But not all mortgages are created equal. So, by doing your research beforehand, you can choose the option that best suits your financial situation and potentially puts more money in your pocket. You also know what guidelines to follow when applying.
Types of mortgages
- Conventional loan – Best for borrowers with a good credit score
- Jumbo loan – Best for borrowers with excellent credit looking to buy an expensive home
- Government-insured loan – Best for borrowers who have lower credit scores and minimal cash for a down payment
- Fixed-rate mortgage – Best for borrowers who’d prefer a predictable, set monthly payment for the duration of the loan
- Adjustable-rate mortgage – Best for borrowers who aren’t planning to stay in the home for an extended period, would prefer lower payments in the short-term and are comfortable with possibly having to pay more in the future
Conventional loans, which are not backed by the federal government, come in two forms: conforming and non-conforming.
Conforming loans – As the name implies, a conforming loan “conforms” to the set of standards put in place by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), which includes credit, debt and loan size. For 2023, the conforming loan limits are $726,200 in most areas and $1,089,300 in high-cost areas.
Non-conforming loans – These loans do not meet FHFA standards. Instead, they cater to borrowers looking to purchase more-expensive homes or individuals with unusual credit profiles.
- Can be used for a primary home, second home or investment property
- Overall borrowing costs tend to be lower than other types of mortgages, even if interest rates are slightly higher
- Can ask your lender to cancel private mortgage insurance (PMI) once you’ve reached 20 percent equity, or refinance to remove it
- Can pay as little as 3 percent down on loans backed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac
- Sellers can contribute to closing costs
- Minimum FICO score of 620 or higher is often required (the same applies for refinancing)
- Higher down payment than some government loans
- Must have a debt-to-income (DTI) ratio of no more than 45 percent (50 percent in some instances)
- Likely need to pay PMI if your down payment is less than 20 percent of the sales price
- Significant documentation required to verify income, assets, down payment and employment
If you have a strong credit score and can afford to make a sizable down payment, a conventional mortgage is probably your best pick. The 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage is the most popular choice for homebuyers.
Jumbo mortgages are home loan products that fall outside FHFA borrowing limits. Jumbo loans are more common in higher-cost areas such as Los Angeles, San Francisco, New York City and the state of Hawaii, where home prices are often on the higher end.
Pros of jumbo loans
- Can borrow more money to purchase a more expensive home
- Interest rates tend to be competitive with other conventional loans
- Often the only finance option in areas with extremely high home values
Cons of jumbo loans
- Down payment of at least 10 percent to 20 percent required in many cases
- A FICO score of 700 or higher usually required
- Cannot have a DTI ratio above 45 percent
- Must show you have significant assets in cash or savings accounts
- Usually require more in-depth documentation to qualify
Who are jumbo loans best for?
If you’re looking to finance a home with a selling price exceeding the latest conforming loan limits, a jumbo loan is likely your best route.
The U.S. government isn’t a mortgage lender, but it does play a role in making homeownership accessible to more Americans by guaranteeing certain types of loans — thus lessening the risk for lenders. Three government agencies back mortgages: the Federal Housing Administration (FHA), the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA).
- FHA loans – Backed by the FHA, these home loans come with competitive interest rates, and help make homeownership possible for borrowers without a large down payment or pristine credit. You’ll need a minimum FICO score of 580 to get the FHA maximum of 96.5 percent financing with a 3.5 percent down payment. However, a score as low as 500 is allowed if you put at least 10 percent down. FHA loans require mortgage insurance premiums, which can increase the overall cost of your mortgage. Lastly, with an FHA loan, the home seller is allowed to contribute to closing costs.
- USDA loans – USDA loans help moderate- to low-income borrowers who meet certain income limits buy homes in rural, USDA-eligible areas. Some USDA loans do not require a down payment for eligible borrowers. There are extra fees, though, including an upfront fee of 1 percent of the loan amount (which can typically be financed with the loan) and an annual fee.
- VA loans – VA loans provide flexible, low-interest mortgages for members of the U.S. military (active duty and veterans) and their families. There’s no minimum down payment, mortgage insurance or credit score requirement, and closing costs are generally capped and may be paid by the seller. VA loans charge a funding fee, a percentage of the loan amount, which can be paid upfront at closing or rolled into the cost of the loan along with other closing costs.
Pros of government-insured loans
- Help you finance a home when you don’t qualify for a conventional loan
- Credit requirements more relaxed
- Don’t need a large down payment
- Available to repeat and first-time buyers
- No mortgage insurance and no down payment required for VA loans
Cons of government-insured loans
- Mandatory mortgage insurance premiums on FHA loans that usually cannot be canceled
- FHA loan sizes are lower than conventional mortgages in most areas, limiting potential inventory to choose from
- Borrower must live in the property (although you may be able to finance a multi-unit building and rent out other units)
- Could have higher overall borrowing costs
- Expect to provide more documentation, depending on the loan type, to prove eligibility
Who are government-insured loans best for?
Are you having trouble qualifying for a conventional loan due to a lower credit score or minimal cash reserves for a down payment? FHA-backed and USDA-backed loans could be a viable option. For military service members, veterans and eligible spouses, VA-backed loan terms are often more generous than a conventional loan’s.
Fixed-rate mortgage
Fixed-rate mortgages maintain the same interest rate over the life of your loan, which means your monthly mortgage payment always stays the same. Fixed loans typically come in terms of 15 years or 30 years, although some lenders allow borrowers to pick any term between eight and 30 years.
Pros of fixed-rate mortgages
- Monthly principal and interest payments stay the same throughout the life of the loan
- Easier to budget housing expenses from month to month
Cons of fixed-rate mortgages
- If interest rates fall, you’ll have to refinance to get that lower rate
- Interest rates typically higher than rates on adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs)
Who are fixed-rate mortgages best for?
If you are planning to stay in your home for at least five to seven years, and want to avoid the potential for changes to your monthly payments, a fixed-rate mortgage is right for you.
In contrast to fixed-rate loans, adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) have interest rates that fluctuate with market conditions. Many ARM products have a fixed interest rate for a few years before the loan changes to a variable interest rate for the remainder of the term. For example, you might see a 7/6 ARM, which means that your rate will remain the same for the first seven years and will adjust every six months after that initial period. If you consider an ARM, it’s essential to read the fine print to know how much your rate can increase and how much you could wind up paying after the introductory period expires.
Pros of ARMs
Lower fixed rate in the first few years of homeownership (although this isn’t a guarantee; as of late, 30-year fixed rates have actually been similar to those for 5/6 ARMs)
Can save a substantial amount of money on interest payments
Cons of ARMs
Monthly mortgage payments could become unaffordable, resulting in a loan default
Home values may fall in a few years, making it harder to refinance or sell before the loan resets
Who are adjustable-rate mortgages best for?
If you don’t plan to stay in your home beyond a few years, an ARM could help you save on interest payments. However, it’s important to be comfortable with a certain level of risk that your payments might increase if you’re still in the home.
Other types of home loans
In addition to these common kinds of mortgages, there are other types you may find when shopping around for a loan:
- Construction loans: If you want to build a home, a construction loan can be a good financing choice — especially a construction-to-permanent loan, which converts to a traditional mortgage once you move into the residence. These short-term loans are best for applicants who can provide a higher down payment and proof that they can afford the monthly payments.
- Interest-only mortgages: With an interest-only mortgage, the borrower makes interest-only payments for a set period – usually five and seven years — followed by payments for both principal and interest. You won’t build equity as quickly with this loan, since you’re initially only paying back interest. These loans are best for those who know they can sell or refinance, or for those who can reasonably expect to afford the higher monthly payment later.
- Piggyback loans: A piggyback loan, also referred to as an 80/10/10 loan, involves two loans: one for 80 percent of the home price and another for 10 percent. You’ll make a down payment for the remaining 10 percent.These loan products are designed to help the borrower avoid paying for mortgage insurance. But piggyback loans require two sets of closing costs, and you’ll also accrue interest on two loans, making this unconventional arrangement these best for those who will actually save money using it.
- Balloon mortgages: A balloon mortgage requires a large payment at the end of the loan term. Generally, you’ll make payments based on a 30-year term, but only for a short time, such as seven years. When the loan term ends, you’ll make a large payment on the outstanding balance, which can be unmanageable if you’re not prepared or your credit situation deteriorates. These loans are best for those who have the stable financial resources needed to make a large balloon payment once the loan term ends.
Rates Move Back Toward Lows After Fed Announcement
Heading into today, we knew the afternoon's Fed announcement was biggest potential flashpoint for interest rate movement, and that the movement probably wouldn't be extreme. The unknown, as always, was the direction of said movement. Thankfully, it was lower. This wasn't destined to be the case this morning. Out of the gate, the average mortgage lender was offering slightly higher rates compared to yesterday's latest levels. After markets reacted to the Fed, lenders revised their rates to the lowest levels in just over a week (also fairly close to the low end of the range going back to mid October). [thirtyyearmortgagerates] What did the Fed say/do to bring rates down? First off, the bond market movement wasn't big, even by the standards of a regular non-Fed day. That said, there was definitely a reaction to the Fed. Some of it had to do with the Fed's rate forecasts staying fairly grounded despite concerns that recent inflation readings could push those forecasts higher. In addition, the Fed made some changes to the way it handles the payments it receives on bonds it already owns. The changes will allow the Fed to reinvest more of those payments back into buying new bonds, and bond buying is good for rates, all other things being equal.
11 hours 45 minutes ago
Checkout newsMortgage Rates Started Higher, But Ended Lower
As we often discuss, mortgage lenders prefer to set their rates once per day. They only make changes when the underlying bond market makes a big enough move. While it wasn't an extreme example, many lenders made such changes today as bonds improved steadily throughout the day. Before the improvements, the average lender was offering slightly higher rates compared to yesterday. After the improvement, today's rates are a hair lower than yesterday's. In both cases, rates continue holding inside a narrow range just off the best levels since mid October. There were several economic reports this morning, but they didn't have a material impact on rates. Tomorrow's key event is the Fed announcement and press conference. This announcement is one of only 4 per year where the Fed will update its rate projections--something that often causes volatility across the rate spectrum. Those projections come out at 2pm ET and Fed Chair Powell holds the customary press conference 30 minutes later. We're not expecting any specific outcome in terms of the direction of movement in mortgage rates and in general, this Fed announcement is a bit less consequential than many recent examples. Nonetheless, potential volatility is always factor on Fed days, even if the volatility doesn't materialize.
1 day 12 hours ago
Checkout newsMortgage Rates Hold Steady Over The Weekend
Mortgage rates are based on movement in the bond market, and the bond market is closed for most of the weekend. As such, one might assume that Monday's mortgage rates would always be right in line with Friday's. But this is definitely not the case for two reasons: 1. The bond market may not officially open in the U.S. until 8:20am ET, but U.S. bonds begin to trade late Sunday night. 2. Mortgage lenders don't set their rates for the day right when bonds start trading. The average lender waits until around 10-11am ET. Because of this, there can be quite a bit of movement in bonds before lenders set rates for the day. The only time we'd see Monday's rates hold perfectly in line with Friday's are occasions like today where the bond market was in similar territory to Friday's levels in the 10-11am ET hour this morning. The sideways drift means mortgage rates continue operating in a narrow range near the lowest levels since mid-October.
2 days 11 hours ago
Checkout newsMortgage Rates Hold Very Steady, Yet Again
Despite some ups and downs on a small scale, mortgage rates have been sideways in the bigger picture. That's a good thing if the latest refi application data is any indication. Demand is at the highest levels since October as rates have generally been holding near mid-October levels. Today was just another day in that regard. Bonds (which dictate rates) were slightly weaker overnight (bond weakness implies higher rates). As as often been the case recently, stocks played a role in the rate movement. Prospects for a debt ceiling deal may have contributed to market optimism. With that, mortgage rates were just a few tenths of a percent higher than yesterday, but to reiterate, not too far from yesterday's latest levels.
5 days 11 hours ago
Checkout newsMortgage Rates Recover After Starting Slightly Higher
Mortgage rates hit their highest levels in just over 2 weeks yesterday and they were on track to remain unchanged today. In fact, the average lender offered the exact same 30yr fixed rate when this morning's initial barrage of rate sheets came out. Lenders typically publish their first rates of the day around 10am ET, and they prefer to avoid any do-overs. But because rates are based on bonds, when the underlying bond market moves enough, lenders can opt to update their offerings. In the mortgage industry, these instances are referred to as "reprices." Reprices can happen in either direction. Today's were positive (i.e. lower rates). This was made possible by bond market improvement that came at the expense of stock market weakness. Stocks and bonds don't always have this type of push and pull relationship, but it has been more common in recent weeks as stocks swoon. Despite the improvement, the general trend in rates has been sideways to slightly higher, but inside the lowest, narrowest range since October.
6 days 11 hours ago
Checkout newsHighest Mortgage Rates in Just Over 2 Weeks
Mortgage rates have moved up over the past 2 days, ultimately hitting the highest levels since February 24th today. While that sounds somewhat unpleasant or unfortunate, context paints a softer picture. Specifically, since February 25th, the average top tier 30yr fixed rate has been in a fairly narrow 0.12% range centered on 6.75%. That makes the past 2 weeks the best 2 weeks we've seen since early October. Today's contribution ended up being surprisingly uneventful. Why surprising? Markets were eagerly anticipating the Consumer Price Index (CPI) release this morning. As is always the case these days, CPI stands a good chance to send rates higher or lower at a faster pace than most other economic reports. Today's CPI showed softer than expected inflation for February and an upward revision for January. Some of the underlying components suggested future inflation readings would be slightly higher than expected. Those counterpoints prevented rates from moving lower despite the apparent victory in the headlines. Looking ahead, tomorrow's Producer Price Index (PPI) is a similar report, but focused on wholesale inflation as opposed to consumer inflation. It, too, can have a bearing on the same future inflation data as CPI. Last month, PPI actually had a bigger impact, and it helped push rates back down after CPI pushed them higher. While this certainly doesn't mean history will repeat itself, it illustrates the possibility of disagreement among these reports.
1 week ago
Checkout newsMortgage Rates Slightly Higher Ahead of Important Inflation Data
With fiscal and geopolitical developments dominating the news cycle, it would be easy to forget that interest rates prefer to take their primary cues from economic data. This is an important reminder considering tomorrow morning brings one of the most closely watched economic reports: the Consumer Price Index (CPI). CPI is one of only a few inflation reports from the U.S. government. It is also the out 2 weeks earlier than its only real competitor. Because of that, and the fact that rates are greatly impact by inflation, CPI is one of the biggest potential sources of rate volatility. There are certainly other economic reports that matter. Even today's Job Openings data managed to cause small scale volatility this morning, but CPI is far more capable. As always, in order to have a truly big impact on rates, the data would need to come in much higher or lower than forecast, and there's no way to know where it will come in ahead of time (economists have already done their best to forecast that). As for today, stock market fluctuations proved to be a bigger influence than the Job Openings data, ultimately pushing rates slightly higher compared to yesterday's latest levels.
1 week 1 day ago
Checkout newsMortgage Rates Recover Some of Last Week's Losses
Conventional 30yr fixed mortgage rates hit their lowest levels in months last Tuesday morning, with the average lender right in line with levels from mid October or early December. After that, rates rose steadily for the next two days and leveled off on Friday. While the bounce was small enough to leave a vast majority of 2025's improvement intact, it nonetheless raised the risk that the bond market would need more convincing before rates were willing to keep following the broader sentiment suggested by ongoing stock losses. Specifically, stocks are speaking to economic concerns. When stocks drop quickly enough, investors can seek safer havens, such as bonds. When demand for bonds increases, rates fall, all other things being equal. Monday has been reassuring in that regard. Bonds are once again paying attention to weakness in stocks--it just happened to take a bigger drop in stocks that we saw last week. Despite the improvement in rates, we would still expect some resistance to the idea of rapid improvement unless the economic data begins to sound the same warnings as equities markets. On that note, the most relevant econ data on the near-term horizon is Wednesday's Consumer Price Index (CPI), the first of the broad measures of inflation in the U.S. and one of the biggest potential sources of volatility for rates.
1 week 2 days ago
Checkout newsMortgage Rates Back Near Yesterday's Levels After Starting Out Lower
The average mortgage lender was briefly able to offer noticeably lower rates this morning compared to yesterday's latest levels. Credit goes to this morning's jobs report for coming in a bit weaker than expected. What do jobs have to do with rates? Rates are based on bonds and bonds are heavily influenced by the state of the economy. Today's jobs report is traditionally the single most important economic report as far as bonds are concerned. In general, weaker economic data begets stronger bonds and lower rates. The fact that rates didn't make a huge move in the morning was our first clue that the jobs report was open to interpretation--or at least open to being superseded by the day's other developments. That became obvious in the PM hours as stocks surged and bonds weakened. When bonds lose enough ground on any given day, mortgage lenders will "reprice" to higher rates, as has been the case today. After the reprice, the average lender is roughly where they were yesterday--still not a bad outcome in the bigger picture, even if not as good as the morning hours suggested. [thirtyyearmortgagerates]
1 week 5 days ago
Checkout newsMortgage Rates Higher For 3rd Straight Day
You may see conflicting news about mortgage rates today, depending on where you look. Weekly surveys, such as Freddie Mac's, are showing a fairly big drop from last week. That was indeed the case over the 5 business days of the weekly survey, but that data is now quite stale. More timely rate metrics show the average lender raising rates over the past 3 days. This is no surprise considering bond yields are higher over the same time frame (mortgage rates almost always move the same direction as bonds yields, specifically 5yr and 10yr Treasuries). Rates have moved higher even as stocks continue lower--a good reminder for anyone who was counting on ongoing stock losses to keep fueling the rate rally. As we often discuss, The correlation between stocks and bonds/rates can come and go for a variety of reasons, but economic data almost always matters when it comes to rates. With several recent reports painting a less dire economic picture, rates have taken the opportunity to pause the exuberant decline that started 3 weeks ago in earnest, but they're still much lower than they have been for most of the year with the exception of the past several days. [thirtyyearmortgagerates] Tomorrow's jobs report is the most important economic data of the week in terms of potential rate volatility.
1 week 6 days ago
Checkout newsMortgage Rates Move Slightly Higher
It's been a great couple of weeks for mortgage rates, largely mirroring the terrible couple of weeks for the stock market. A combination of downbeat econ data and economic concerns helped push investors away from stocks and into bonds (mortgage rates are based on bonds where more demand means lower rates). There have been two notable attempts on the part of stocks to bounce back over these two weeks and today was one of them. Rates have been under pressure at the same time, but they're not just thinking about stocks. Rates/bonds prefer to take cues from economic data. While today's was mixed, the more meaningful of the two key reports was not rate-friendly. Mortgage lenders began the day in decent shape but many were forced to adjust rates higher as bonds responded to the econ data. Fortunately, the damage is minimal for now, and the average 30yr fixed rate is still right in line with the best levels in 4 months, generally speaking. There will be more data with the power to send rates in either direction over the next 2 days. As always, there's no way to know ahead of time if the data will help or hurt.
2 weeks ago
Checkout newsMortgage Rates Briefly Hit 4 Month Lows
Although mortgage rates are based on bonds, and although bonds are constantly on the move throughout the day, mortgage lenders prefer to set the day's rates only once. From there, if bonds make enough of a fuss, lenders will issue mid-day changes for better or worse. Today was a bit of a roller coaster, which is not surprising considering the extent to which stocks and bonds have been correlated recently. Stocks took a dive early in the day and bond yields (aka rates) followed. This allowed the average lender to set the lowest 30yr fixed mortgage rates since mid October. As the day progressed, stocks and bonds bounced back in the other direction and the move was big enough for most mortgage lenders to reprice back toward slightly higher rates. The bad news is that we're no longer at the lowest level in 4 months, but the good news is that we're still a hair lower than yesterday (or any other day since December 8th.
2 weeks 1 day ago
Checkout newsMortgage Rates Roughly Unchanged Over The Weekend
Mortgage rates faced a very small threat of a very small increase this morning. The underlying bond market was in weaker territory to start the day and that typically means mortgage lenders raise rates. Indeed, many lenders were slightly higher at first. But just as the first lenders were publishing rates for the day, the ISM Manufacturing Index (an important economic report that often causes a reaction in bonds) was released. The results were good for bonds, thus allowing mortgage lenders to set rates in line with Friday's latest levels, on average. While the streak isn't completely perfect, since February 12th, the average top tier 30yr fixed rate has dropped consistently and forcefully from 7.13% to 6.74%. Stock market losses and doubts over the economy have led more investors to buy bonds. When investors buy more bonds, rates move lower, all other things being equal. It's an active week for economic data with Friday's jobs report always up to the task of causing rate volatility.
2 weeks 2 days ago
Checkout newsRates Are Getting Really Close to 4 Month Lows
After more than a week of consistent and meaningful improvement, mortgage rates finally showed us that they were at least capable of moving in the other direction yesterday. Thankfully, that demonstration was short-lived. The average lender got back to the recently typical business of offering the lowest conventional 30yr fixed rates in several months. As of today, you'd have to go back to December 9th to see anything lower, but if rates improve just a tiny bit more, you'd have to keep feeding quarters into the time machine until reaching October 18th. At that point, it would take quite bit more doing to extend the "best in x months" time frame, but no one's complaining. The average lender is easily back into the upper middle 6% range with many of the more aggressive lenders actually in the mid 6% range for top tier scenarios. This is a surprising turn of events given the interest rate fears being parroted by many pundits as the market considered the potential impact of tariff implementation. To be fair, fiscal policies will take much more time to make their impacts known on the economy and interest rates. For now, the gains are courtesy of softer economic data, as-expected PCE inflation (announced just today), and investor concern over the economic impact from fiscal policy. [thirtyyearmortgagerates]
2 weeks 5 days ago
Checkout newsMortgage Rates Finally Stop Moving Lower, But Just Barely
Stop the presses! Mortgage rates actually moved HIGHER today! While it's the first time we've been able to say such things since last Tuesday, the damage is almost imperceptible. In fact, if we compare today's rates to yesterday morning's they're identical to slightly lower. Today's rates are only worse when compared to the slightly lower rates seen after yesterday's mid-day improvements. In general, lenders prefer to set mortgage rates once per day and hope the underlying bond market doesn't move enough to force a mid day reprice (a positive or negative adjustment). The bigger the bond market move, the more lenders will be inclined to reprice. Today's movements weren't big enough for reprices, so the morning mortgage rate offerings stayed in effect throughout the day. Bonds were only modestly weaker, thus the minimal change in rates. Bottom line, for all practical purposes, today's rates are still the lowest since early December. Tomorrow brings this week's best and final chance to see some volatility, for better or worse. The PCE Price Index for January will be released at 8:30am ET. This is the most important economic report of the week and one that began having an impact on rates 2 weeks ago when traders gleaned clues from other inflation reports that suggested PCE would look better than its more timely counterparts. If that was confusing, here's a breakdown: CPI and PPI are the two other inflation indices that come out 2 weeks before PCE. They're more timely, but not as robust in terms of the data covered. They also have a bearing on PCE if you know which details to include and ignore. When traders did that math, they concluded that PCE would paint a slightly better picture for inflation. Because of that, rates were able to move lower on a week with higher inflation numbers.
2 weeks 6 days ago
Checkout newsMortgage Rates Hold Trickle to Another Multi-Month Low
Mortgage rates are directly connected to the bond market, and bonds can seemingly do no wrong over the past week. Specifically, demand for bonds has been strong and steady. Higher demand begets higher prices and, when it comes to bonds, higher prices result in lower rates. On several occasions since last Friday, we've seen obvious examples of investors moving money out of stocks and into bonds. The risk there is that bonds/rates would bounce back in the other direction if stocks manage to do the same. But so far, the moderate attempts at recovery in the stock market have not spilled over into the bond market. In other words, rates have held their gains very well, even at times when it seemed like stocks might be trying to stage a recovery. Today didn't see nearly as much movement as several of the past few days, but rates managed to start out right in line with yesterday's levels. By the early afternoon, bonds had improved enough for the average lender to offer a modest mid-day improvement. The result is the lowest average 30yr fixed rate since December 10th. [thirtyyearmortgagerates]
3 weeks ago
Checkout newsMortgage Rates Quickly Moving Toward 4 Month Lows
Over the past 4 business days, the average top tier mortgage rate has fallen by 0.22%. While that may seem like a small number, consider that mortgage rates haven't moved half as much in either direction for the entire month up until this point. Looked at another way, the last time rates moved down this much, it took more than 3 weeks. While there are examples of rates dropping faster, the point is that the current pace is relatively rare. It's made all the more interesting by the absence of what we would consider to be top tier motivations. Such motivations typically include things like the jobs report, other key economic reports, major geopolitical events, or big policy revelations from the Federal Reserve. The current example definitely draws on some downbeat economic data for inspiration, but not from reports that are usually responsible for this type of movement. Additionally, the underlying bond market has continued to improve at a steady pace at times of day that suggest motivations beyond the economic reports. Long story short, bonds are in fashion at the moment. When traders buy more bonds, rates move lower, all other things being equal. The broadest and most common explanations have to do with expectations for a downshift in global economic growth in response to domestic tariffs and cost-cutting efforts. That topic is a can of worms in terms of complexity and counterpoints, to be sure. Fortunately, it will either be confirmed or rejected by economic data in the coming months. There's more room for improvement if the data is weak and inflation is lower than expected. Conversely, if it's merely "vibes" driving the present bond buying spree and the data sings a different tune, there's plenty of room for rates to bounce back up.
3 weeks 1 day ago
Checkout newsMortgage Rates Start New Week at 2 Month Lows
Mortgage rates were already in line with the lowest levels since December 18th by last Thursday. They dropped to the best levels since December 12th a day later. end of last week. When today's initial rate offerings came out, the average lender was unchanged from Friday, but as the day progressed, bonds improved and many lenders were able to offer a modest improvement. The result is that we can once again say that rates are the lowest since December 12th, even if most borrowers would see no difference in loan quotes from Friday. The bond market (which underlies and dictates interest rate movement) was very calm today after early gains. Investors are waiting to see Friday's PCE inflation data before making any big moves in either direction, but there is also some smaller risk of volatility surrounding other events this week. Honorable mentions include the Treasury auctions on each of the 2 following afternoons as well as Thursday morning's slate of economic data.
3 weeks 2 days ago
Checkout newsMortgage Rates End Week at Lowest Levels Since December 18th
Back on December 18th, rates began the day fairly close to where they ended the previous day. In the afternoon, rates surged sharply higher following the Fed announcement. Even since then, the average 30yr fixed rate has operated almost exclusively above 7%. Rates dipped a pinky toe into the 6% range on Feb 5th and then a few more toes last Friday. Now today, we're ending another week with damp digits, right in line with last Friday at the best levels since December 18th. Today's improvement was initially driven by weak economic data this morning in the form of S&P Global's service sector index dropping sharply to the lowest levels since the middle of 2023. Rates tend to benefit from economic weakness. The next leg of the improvement was mainly seen in underlying bond markets, and it came courtesy of a big stock market sell-off. Stock market weakness has a mixed relationship with bonds/rates. There are times where they move in unison and other times, in opposite directions. Today's version involved organic, heavy selling in stocks which ultimately pushed some investors into the bond market as a safe haven. When investors buy more bonds, rates drop, all other things being equal. These additional gains in the bond market occurred after most mortgage lenders published their initial rates for the day. Only a handful of lenders dropped their rates in the afternoon in response to the additional bond market gains.
3 weeks 5 days ago
Checkout newsMortgage Rates Casually Drift Back to 2 Month Lows
It was a fairly decent day for mortgage rates with the average lender returning to the lowest levels in just over 2 months. The improvement followed early morning comments from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent regarding the probable mix of future Treasury debt. What's that got to do with mortgage rates? So much... Mortgage rates are based on mortgage-specific bonds that are in the same extended family as US Treasuries. If Treasuries are like oranges, mortgages are like orange juice--i.e. they're sort of a substitute for some people, but either way, heavily dependent on the price and availability of the former. All that to say that anything that impacts Treasuries in an obvious way also tends to impact mortgage rates. Today's impacts were minimal, but mortgage rates weren't too far from those 2 month lows to begin with. Bigger victories would require a decisive shift toward lower inflation in key economic reports, or toward a markedly weaker economic data in general.
3 weeks 6 days ago
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